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Sharpie-altered Hurricane Dorian map

From bullshitopedia
Sharpie-altered Hurricane Dorian map
MANIPULATED MEDIA
"An official National Hurricane Center forecast map displayed in the Oval Office in September 2019 showed that Hurricane Dorian was expected to affect Alabama."
Domain Science & Environment
Tactic Manipulation
Propaganda Technique
Era Current
First seen 2019
Origin A forecast map displayed by President Donald Trump on September 4, 2019, on which the forecast cone had been extended with a black marker to include part of Alabama
Last reviewed 2026-10-27
Further reading: books on Science & Environment

The Sharpie-altered Hurricane Dorian map was a National Hurricane Center forecast chart displayed by President Donald Trump during an Oval Office briefing on September 4, 2019. The official map, issued days earlier, showed the hurricane's projected path along Florida's coast. On the displayed copy, the "cone of uncertainty" had been extended with a black marker to include part of southern Alabama. The alteration came after Trump had posted that Alabama would likely be hit harder than anticipated, a claim the National Weather Service office in Birmingham had contradicted. The episode, nicknamed "Sharpiegate," led to an unsigned statement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) supporting the president, and later investigations found that NOAA officials had violated the agency's scientific integrity policy.

The claim

On September 1, 2019, as Hurricane Dorian approached the southeastern United States, Trump posted that South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia and Alabama would most likely be hit much harder than anticipated. About twenty minutes later the National Weather Service office in Birmingham, Alabama, posted that Alabama would not see any impacts from Dorian, after receiving calls from concerned residents. Over the following days Trump insisted that his statement had been correct, and on September 4 he displayed the altered map.

What the evidence shows

  • The map was altered. The original National Hurricane Center map from August 29 showed the forecast cone covering parts of Florida and southern Georgia. The displayed version had an additional loop drawn in black marker extending the cone into Alabama. Altering an official weather forecast is unusual and, when presented as an official product, can mislead the public.
  • Forecasts did not show Alabama at significant risk. By September 1, official forecasts showed the storm turning north along the Atlantic coast. Some earlier forecast models had shown a small chance of tropical-storm-force winds reaching a corner of Alabama, which the White House cited, but the official forecast at the time of Trump's post did not indicate a significant threat to Alabama.
  • Who drew it. Trump said he did not know who had marked the map. The Washington Post later reported, citing a White House official, that Trump had drawn the extension himself with a black marker.
  • NOAA statement. On September 6 NOAA issued an unsigned statement saying that information provided to the president had shown tropical-storm-force winds could affect Alabama and criticizing the Birmingham office for speaking in absolute terms. Many meteorologists, including NOAA's acting chief scientist, objected.
  • Investigations. In 2020 the Commerce Department's inspector general found that the NOAA statement had been issued under pressure from political appointees. A separate review by an independent panel organized through the National Academy of Public Administration found that the acting NOAA administrator, Neil Jacobs, and another senior official had violated NOAA's scientific integrity policy.

Why it matters

Weather forecasts save lives, and public trust in them depends on their independence from politics. Altering an official forecast map, and pressuring scientists to support a political claim, risked confusing the public during an emergency and undermining confidence in forecasters. The episode became a widely cited example of political interference in science, alongside other concerns raised during the period.

Lessons for readers

  • Compare a displayed chart or map with the original published version.
  • During emergencies, rely on official forecasts from weather agencies.
  • Notice when official agencies issue unsigned statements that appear to contradict their own experts.
  • Political figures of any party can pressure scientific agencies; independent oversight matters.
  • Small visual edits can change the meaning of scientific graphics.

See also

Sources

  • National Weather Service Birmingham, post on Hurricane Dorian, September 1, 2019.
  • US Department of Commerce, Office of Inspector General, Evaluation of NOAA's September 6, 2019, Statement About Hurricane Dorian Forecasts (2020).
  • National Academy of Public Administration, scientific integrity panel report to NOAA (2020).
  • Josh Dawsey and Andrew Freedman, reporting on the altered map, The Washington Post, September 2019.
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