Patriot missiles destroyed nearly every Scud in the Gulf War

Patriot missiles destroyed nearly every Scud in the Gulf War
	MISLEADING
	"During the 1991 Gulf War, US Patriot missiles intercepted 41 of the 42 Iraqi Scud missiles they engaged."
Domain	War, Conflict & Geopolitics
Tactic	Statistical & Evidentiary Distortion; Propaganda Technique;
Era	Historical
First seen	February 1991
Origin	President George H. W. Bush, speaking at the Raytheon Patriot plant in Andover, Massachusetts, on February 15, 1991
Last reviewed	2026-10-29
	Further reading: books on War, Conflict & Geopolitics

The claim that Patriot missiles destroyed nearly every Scud became one of the defining images of the 1991 Gulf War, as television showed launches lighting the night sky over Israel and Saudi Arabia. Later analysis by government auditors and independent scientists found that the evidence supported only a small fraction of the claimed successes.

The claim

President Bush said the Patriot was "41 for 42." The Army later claimed success rates of about 80 percent in Saudi Arabia and 50 percent in Israel, then lowered them.

What the evidence shows

Weak data. In September 1992 the General Accounting Office reported that Army data did not support its claims and that strong evidence existed for only about 9 percent of claimed intercepts.
Video analysis. MIT physicist Theodore Postol analyzed television footage and told Congress in 1992 that the Patriot may have destroyed very few Scud warheads.
Israeli doubts. Israeli officials said damage did not fall after Patriots were deployed.

Why it matters

Weapons performance claims made in wartime serve morale and sales and are rarely checked until later.

Sources

US General Accounting Office, Operation Desert Storm: Data Does Not Exist to Conclusively Say How Well Patriot Performed, GAO/NSIAD-92-340, September 1992.
Theodore A. Postol, "Lessons of the Gulf War Experience with Patriot," International Security 16, no. 3 (Winter 1991–92).