New York's bail reform caused a crime wave
| New York's bail reform caused a crime wave | |
|---|---|
| DISPUTED | |
| "New York's 2020 bail reform law, which eliminated cash bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies, caused the increase in crime the state experienced in 2020 and 2021." | |
| Domain | Crime & Public Safety |
| Tactic | Statistical & Evidentiary Distortion |
| Era | Current |
| First seen | 2020 |
| Origin | Statements by politicians, police officials and media commentators after the law took effect on January 1, 2020, and as crime rose during the COVID-19 pandemic |
| Last reviewed | 2026-10-27 |
| Further reading: books on Crime & Public Safety | |
The claim that New York's bail reform caused a crime wave became a central issue in New York politics. The law, which took effect in January 2020, required judges to release most people charged with misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies while their cases were pending, rather than setting cash bail. Shootings and some other crimes rose in New York in 2020 and 2021. Critics blamed the reform and pointed to cases of people who were rearrested after release. Researchers found that crime rose across the United States during the same period, including in places with no bail reform, and studies of New York data found that the reform had mixed effects on whether released people were rearrested, with reductions for many and increases for some groups. The status here is Disputed because the debate continues and researchers disagree on some effects, but the evidence does not show that bail reform was the main cause of rising crime.
The claim
Supporters of the claim argued that releasing defendants without bail let repeat offenders return to the streets and emboldened criminals. The legislature amended the law in 2020, 2022 and 2023 to give judges more discretion.
What the evidence shows
- National trend. Homicides rose by about 30 percent nationwide in 2020, the largest one-year increase on record, according to FBI data. The increase occurred in cities and states with and without bail reform, suggesting broader causes, such as the pandemic's disruptions.
- Recidivism studies. Studies by the Data Collaborative for Justice at John Jay College of Criminal Justice found that, overall, people released under the reform were less likely to be rearrested than similar people before it, but that for some people with recent prior arrests, rearrest rates increased.
- Small share. Analyses of New York City data found that people released under bail reform accounted for a small share of overall arrests.
- Specific cases. Individual cases in which people released without bail committed new crimes were real and received extensive coverage.
- Limits. Isolating the effect of a single policy during a pandemic, with simultaneous changes in policing, courts and the economy, is very difficult.
Why it persists
The timing of the law and the rise in crime made a causal link seem obvious. Specific cases provided vivid examples. Bail reform became a partisan issue, and both sides selected evidence that fit their view.
Lessons for readers
- When two things happen at the same time, look for other explanations.
- Compare places that did and did not adopt a policy.
- Individual cases cannot by themselves measure a policy's overall effect.
- Effects can differ across groups even when the overall effect is small.
- Be wary of claims that one policy explains a complex trend.
See also
- Immigrants commit more crime than native-born Americans
- Superpredators would cause a juvenile crime wave
- Video shows Paris looters selling stolen goods on the sidewalk
Sources
- Data Collaborative for Justice at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, studies of the impact of New York bail reform on recidivism (2022–2023).
- Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime in the United States, 2020.
- Michael Rempel and Krystal Rodriguez, "Bail Reform Revisited: The Impact of New York's Amended Bail Law on Pretrial Detention," Center for Court Innovation (2020).