Library:Wrong
| Wrong | |
|---|---|
| Author | David H. Freedman |
| First published | 2010 |
| ISBN | 978-0-316-02378-8 unverified |
| Role | Analysis |
| Domains | Science & Environment Health & Medicine Business, Finance & Scams |
| Tactics | Statistical & Evidentiary Distortion |
Wrong is a 2010 book by David H. Freedman.
Summary
David H. Freedman, a science and business journalist, examines why expert advice so often turns out to be wrong. The book's subtitle is Why Experts Keep Failing Us—And How to Know When Not to Trust Them.
Flawed research
Freedman draws heavily on the work of Stanford researcher John Ioannidis, whose 2005 paper argued that most published research findings are false, because of small samples, biased incentives, flexible analysis and publication bias. He describes how these problems affect medicine, nutrition, psychology, economics and management advice.
Why bad advice spreads
The book explains that the findings most likely to receive attention are often the most surprising, simple and definitive, which are also the most likely to be wrong. Media coverage, career incentives and the public's desire for clear answers reinforce the problem.
Guidance
Freedman offers rules of thumb for judging expert claims, such as being wary of advice that is simplistic, universal, dramatic or based on a single study, and giving more weight to claims supported by large, rigorous and replicated research.
Relevance to Bullshitopedia
Written before the "replication crisis" became widely known, the book anticipated many of its concerns. Its guidance for evaluating claims fits closely with Bullshitopedia's lessons for readers.
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