Library:Superforecasting
| Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Author | Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner |
| First published | 2015 |
| ISBN | — |
| Role | Analysis |
| Domains | Science & Space Politics & Elections |
| Tactics | Statistical & Evidentiary Distortion |
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a 2015 book by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner.
Summary
Political scientist Philip Tetlock had shown in earlier research that many expert forecasters did little better than chance. In the Good Judgment Project, part of a forecasting tournament funded by the US intelligence research agency IARPA starting in 2011, his team recruited thousands of volunteers to predict world events.
A small group, the "superforecasters," consistently beat other teams, including intelligence analysts with access to classified information. This book, written with journalist Dan Gardner, explains how.
Key points
- Habits, not genius. Superforecasters break questions into parts, start from base rates and update often in small steps.
- Keep score. Accuracy improves when forecasts are specific, numerical and checked later.
- Foxes and hedgehogs. Thinkers who draw on many ideas tend to forecast better than those committed to one big idea.
Relevance to Bullshitopedia
Pundits and politicians often make confident predictions that are never checked. Tetlock shows why scoring predictions matters and what trustworthy judgment looks like.