The Patriots deliberately deflated footballs
| The Patriots deliberately deflated footballs | |
|---|---|
| DISPUTED | |
| "The New England Patriots, with quarterback Tom Brady's knowledge, deliberately deflated footballs below the legal pressure limit during the January 2015 AFC Championship Game to gain an advantage." | |
| Domain | Sports & Competition |
| Tactic | Statistical & Evidentiary Distortion |
| Era | Historical |
| First seen | 2015 |
| Origin | Accusations following the Patriots' 45–7 win over the Indianapolis Colts on January 18, 2015, and the NFL-commissioned investigation led by attorney Theodore Wells |
| Last reviewed | 2026-10-27 |
| Further reading: books on Sports & Competition | |
The claim that the Patriots deliberately deflated footballs, known as "Deflategate," led to one of the most bitter disputes in NFL history. After the Colts raised concerns, officials measured the Patriots' footballs at halftime of the AFC Championship Game and found that most were below the minimum pressure of 12.5 pounds per square inch. An NFL-commissioned report by attorney Theodore Wells concluded that it was "more probable than not" that two Patriots equipment staff members deliberately released air from the balls, and that Brady was "at least generally aware." Brady was suspended for four games and the team was fined $1 million and lost draft picks. Scientists and economists disputed the report's analysis, arguing that the drop in pressure could be explained largely or entirely by cold weather. The status here is Disputed because the evidence is circumstantial and its interpretation is contested.
What the evidence shows
- The Wells Report. Released in May 2015, the report relied on text messages between equipment staff, including one who referred to himself as "the deflator," a trip by a staff member to a bathroom with the game balls before the game, and pressure measurements.
- Physics. Air pressure in a football drops as temperature falls, according to the ideal gas law. The Wells Report's scientific consultants concluded that temperature could not fully explain the drop. Other analysts, including physicists and a 2015 analysis published by the American Enterprise Institute, argued that the measured pressures were consistent with natural causes, depending on which gauge officials used and when the balls were measured.
- Measurement uncertainty. Officials used two gauges that gave different readings, and the referee could not recall which gauge was used before the game, which complicated the analysis.
- Legal battle. A federal district judge vacated Brady's suspension in September 2015, but the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reinstated it in April 2016, ruling that the commissioner had acted within his authority under the collective bargaining agreement. The court did not decide whether Brady was guilty.
- Brady's phone. Brady destroyed his cell phone around the time he was to meet with investigators, which the NFL cited as a failure to cooperate. Brady said he routinely disposed of old phones.
Why it persists
Deflategate reflected long-standing suspicion of the Patriots after an earlier rule violation, "Spygate," in 2007. Fans' loyalties shaped how they interpreted ambiguous evidence. The more probable than not standard, physics debates and legal rulings that turned on procedure rather than guilt left room for both sides.
Lessons for readers
- "More probable than not" is a lower standard than proof beyond a reasonable doubt.
- Physical measurements depend on instruments, conditions and timing.
- Court rulings on procedure are not rulings on the underlying facts.
- Team loyalty can strongly influence how evidence is interpreted.
- Circumstantial evidence can be suggestive without being conclusive.
See also
- The Houston Astros won the 2017 World Series fairly
- The hot hand is a myth
- The 2002 Olympic pairs skating result was judged fairly
Sources
- Theodore V. Wells Jr. et al., Investigative Report Concerning Footballs Used During the AFC Championship Game on January 18, 2015 (Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, May 6, 2015).
- National Football League Management Council v. National Football League Players Association, US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, April 25, 2016.
- Kevin A. Hassett, Joseph W. Sullivan and Stan A. Veuger, "The Wells Report and Deflategate," American Enterprise Institute (2015).